Hot CPI, hot yields, cold metals: why September inflation knocked gold below $4,100

The number the market had waited all week for came in hot, and gold and silver paid for it. In late US trading on Wednesday, at about 17:15 New York time, spot gold was near $4,098.80, down $61.30 or 1.47%, and spot silver near $55.41, down 6.16%, according to Kitco’s PM report.

The CPI scoreboard

Actual figures as reported by Kitco News, 14 October 2026; expectations from the Reuters preview.

The detail that mattered was the core. Going in, economists had expected 0.2% on the month — the figure BMO’s Scott Anderson had called “good enough” for an October pause, as we reported in our CPI preview. It came in at 0.3%. Gasoline did most of the headline work — a 9.1% jump accounted for more than half the monthly rise, Kitco reports — but a hotter core says inflation is not only about fuel.

How the hike odds moved

The market’s reaction was immediate. The odds of a Fed rate hike at the 27–28 October meeting rose from about 20% to nearly 40%, according to Kitco, and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed toward 5.3% before easing to around 5.27%. That is the chain we have described all month: hotter inflation, higher expected rates, higher yields, a higher cost of holding metals that pay nothing. This time it played out in a single afternoon.

The Beige Book piled on

Later the same day, the Fed’s Beige Book — its survey of business conditions across its twelve districts — added to the pressure. It showed price increases accelerating in four districts and fuel-related cost pressure reported widely, Kitco says. It is anecdotal evidence, but it pointed the same way as the CPI: energy costs are working their way into the wider economy.

Why silver fell four times as hard

Gold fell about 1.5%; silver fell about 6%. Part of that is silver’s higher volatility, and part is what it is used for: more than half of silver demand is industrial, so a Fed that may have to slow the economy threatens silver twice. We explain that in Why silver falls harder than gold, and put the size of silver’s slide in numbers in Silver is now half its January peak.

Kitco’s silver levels

Kitco puts silver’s immediate support at $55.27, just below where it traded late on Wednesday, then $55.00. First resistance is $56.00, then the $56.55–$57.64 zone. Those are Kitco’s levels, not forecasts. Early on Thursday both metals bounced — see Gold bounces back above $4,150.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.