China’s record gold imports are propping up bullion

While Western investors weigh gold against Treasury yields near their highest in a generation, China is buying it in quantities the market has rarely seen. A CNBC feature by Anniek Bao, published early on 12 October, brings the numbers together — and the analysts it quotes reach a similar conclusion: Chinese demand is helping to hold the price up.

The official buyer: a 23-month streak

The People’s Bank of China bought gold for a 23rd consecutive month in September, CNBC reports, adding about 23 tonnes — its biggest monthly purchase in almost three years. The Vault Report’s reading of the official data gives the same picture in ounces: reserves rose by 740,000 ounces to 77.47 million. We break those figures down in PBoC’s September gold add.

The bigger buyer: everyone else

Central-bank buying is only part of the story. China imported more than 1,000 tonnes of gold, worth $158.8bn, in the first eight months of 2026 — more than the 886 tonnes, worth $96.5bn, it imported in the whole of 2025, according to CNBC. Imports cover far more than the central bank: they feed jewellery, bars and coins, and investment products bought by households and companies.

CNBC sets out why Chinese buyers are leaning so heavily on gold:

• De-dollarization. Reducing reliance on the US dollar, especially for the state.
• Weak alternatives at home. A troubled property market and weak stocks have left households with fewer places to put savings.
• Low opportunity cost. Chinese interest rates are low, so holding gold instead of a deposit costs a Chinese saver far less than it costs an American one.

Why it matters more when US yields are high

That last point is the key to how the two halves of the market fit together. For a US investor, a Treasury yielding more than 5% makes gold expensive to hold, and Western investment demand is sensitive to that — it is the core of the Fed problem gold faces. A Chinese buyer earning a fraction of that on a deposit faces a very different calculation. Ewa Manthey of ING told CNBC that “Chinese buying has become an important source of structural support for gold prices.” Carsten Menke of Julius Baer pointed out that prices have held above their summer levels despite higher yields, and estimates the PBoC had bought about 190 tonnes by the end of August — including some 110 tonnes it did not report. Saxo’s Ole Hansen, also quoted, set out the risks on the downside. That is the case in short: Chinese demand is cushioning gold while high US yields weigh on demand in the West.

One forecast, labelled as such

CNBC also quotes State Street’s Aakash Doshi, who sees gold at $4,750–$5,500 an ounce by the end of the first quarter of 2027. That is State Street’s forecast, not ours; we do not publish price targets. It is worth noting how wide the range is — a reminder that even a bullish view comes with a lot of uncertainty.

For the global picture of official buying, see our central-bank scoreboard for August, and for how Western investors are behaving, record Q3 ETF inflows.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.