Gold slips to $4,164 as markets brace for CPI and an 88% chance of a December hike

Monday’s climb to a one-week high did not last into Tuesday. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,164.45 an ounce by 02:01 GMT, according to a Reuters report carried by Investing.com, as the dollar held near an 18-month high and traders waited for Wednesday’s US consumer price data.

Tuesday’s prices

As reported by Reuters via Investing.com, 02:01 GMT on Tuesday 13 October 2026.

That leaves gold below the roughly $4,206 it reached on Monday — see Gold holds above $4,200 — and back under the $4,200 mark that several analysts had treated as the test of the rebound.

October pause, December hike

CME’s FedWatch tool, as cited by Reuters on Tuesday, put the chance of a rate hike in October at about 21% and by December at about 88%. Both are up slightly on Monday’s readings of roughly 17% and 86%. The market still expects the Fed to hold at its 27–28 October meeting, but it is now close to certain about a hike before the end of the year. For gold, which pays no interest, that is the main headwind: every expected hike raises the return on the cash and bonds it competes with.

What CPI has to show

The consensus for Wednesday’s September CPI is the same split we described in Have gold and silver bottomed?: headline inflation of 0.6% on the month and 3.6% on the year, driven by energy, against core inflation of 0.2% and 2.5%. The two paths are easy to describe:

• A hot core reading would suggest inflation is spreading beyond energy. That tends to push Treasury yields and the dollar higher and has weighed on both metals.
• A soft core reading would support the view that the Fed can be patient, and has tended to ease yields and help gold and silver.

Which one arrives is not something we forecast.

The analysts’ ranges

The report recalls a scenario from Peter Grant of Zaner Metals, who has said gold could retest the $4,000 area before recovering to $4,400 by year-end — a previously stated scenario, the article notes, not confirmed price targets. For silver, it cites FXEmpire: clear $62.60 and the next resistance is $64–$65, with $72 beyond that. Those are their views, not ours. Kitco’s overnight levels, which put the first gold support just above $4,175, are in Kitco close: oil rebound and 5.24% yields cap gold.

For the current price, see the live gold price.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.