$4,175 gold, $59.96 silver: the levels that decide the CPI trade

Going into Wednesday’s US inflation report, two numbers sum up the technical picture according to FXEmpire: $4,175.03 for gold and $59.96 for silver. Both are first support levels — and both were close to where the metals were trading as the week began.

Gold’s triggers

FXEmpire describes gold as under pressure while it stays below $4,226.82. A break below $4,175.03 would, in its analysis, expose $4,141.86 and then $4,103.24, with $4,067.42 further down. These are FXEmpire’s levels, not ours, and they describe where buyers and sellers have tended to appear, not where the price will go.

Silver’s triggers

As reported by FXEmpire, 12 October 2026.

Many of these numbers are the same as Kitco’s — see Kitco close. Shared levels are not a coincidence: analysts working from the same price history find the same turning points, and when many traders watch the same line, it tends to matter more.

The floor story: central banks and ETFs

FXEmpire pairs its chart levels with the demand that has kept gold above $4,000. Gold ETF holdings are at a record 4,256 tonnes, it notes, citing the World Gold Council. And it cites a forecast reported by Reuters — the forecaster is not named — of about 720 tonnes of central-bank buying in 2026 — about 15% less than in 2025, but still above the levels seen before 2022. Even a slower pace of official buying, in other words, would be historically high.

Silver’s sixth deficit year

For silver, FXEmpire cites the Silver Institute’s view that 2026 will be the sixth successive structural deficit, at about 46.3 million ounces. It puts industrial demand at 639.6 million ounces, with solar makers substituting away from silver but demand from AI, cars and power electronics partly offsetting that, and bar and coin demand up 18% (the Silver Institute’s DiRienzo describes investment demand only as “a bit higher” than last year). The full argument is in Silver’s new floor.

How the levels hold up depends largely on Wednesday’s number; the consensus and the two paths are set out in Gold slips to $4,164.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.