Gold holds above $4,200 as oil softens and markets count down to CPI

Gold started the week where Friday’s rebound left it: above $4,200. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,206.01 an ounce by 02:53 GMT on Monday, having touched its highest level since 2 October earlier in the session, according to a Reuters report carried by CNBC. US gold futures for December delivery were also up 0.3%, at $4,230.40.

Monday’s prices

As reported by Reuters via CNBC, 02:53 GMT on Monday 12 October 2026.

The futures price sits above spot because a December contract builds in the cost of financing and storing gold until then — with US rates where they are, that gap is wider than it used to be.

What the “energy ceasefire” did to oil

The main support came from oil. Prices softened after President Trump announced a Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire”, Reuters reported — though Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said he was still waiting for the details — and the dollar was softer. Cheaper oil helps gold by an indirect route: energy is the most volatile part of inflation, so lower oil prices take some pressure off the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates — and fewer rate hikes make a metal that pays no interest easier to hold. We look at the diesel side of the same story in Diesel diplomacy and the IEA.

October pause, December risk

CME’s FedWatch tool showed about a 17% chance of a rate hike in October and about 86% by December, according to the report. In other words, the market thinks the Fed will probably hold at its meeting on 27–28 October, but expects a hike before the year is out. That December number is the one weighing on gold; it is why last week’s talk was of gold running into a wall of rate expectations.

The data that decides the week

• Wednesday: US consumer prices (CPI) for September.
• Thursday: US producer prices (PPI) and retail sales.

Recent weeks give a simple template for how gold has reacted, without telling us which way the numbers will fall. Hot inflation and strong spending have lifted hike odds and Treasury yields, and gold has struggled. Softer numbers have done the reverse. ActionForex sets out the levels that would confirm or undo the rebound in Have gold and silver bottomed?, and FXStreet points to strong ETF inflows as another source of support, covered in ETF inflows and CTA covering.

For the figure right now, see the live gold price.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.