Central banks just bought the most gold in two years — while prices fell

In the month gold fell 8.5%, the world’s central banks bought more of it than at any time in almost two years. Central banks bought about 63 tonnes of gold in September, according to preliminary World Gold Council estimates reported by the Financial Times and carried by The Asia Business Daily (reporter Yoo Hyun-seok) — the most since November 2024.

How 63 tonnes compares

The WGC’s August figure was a net 39 tonnes, bringing the year to 170 tonnes (see the August scoreboard). September’s estimate is more than half as much again. China accounts for a large share: the People’s Bank of China added about 23 tonnes in September, its 23rd consecutive month of buying and its largest addition since 2023 (see PBoC’s September gold add).

The timing is the point. Central banks stepped up their buying in a month when the gold price was falling sharply. That is what makes official demand different from most investment flows: reserve managers building a long-term position tend to treat lower prices as an opportunity rather than a warning.

Not every central bank is buying

Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper, quoted in the report, noted that some central banks have sold gold this year to raise funds after the US–Israel–Iran war began. That is the other use of gold reserves: a store of value that can be turned into cash in a crisis. The net figures above are what is left after those sales.

Calls for new records

At the FT’s precious metals symposium, several speakers were bullish:

• Charlotte Yonge of Troy Asset Management forecast record gold prices within 12 to 18 months.
• Paul Carne of Aon Investments forecast a record within the next two years.
• Ian Cockerill, chief executive of Endeavour Mining, was more careful about the floor — “I don’t know whether $4,000 per troy ounce is the floor,” he said — but added that gold is “very close to a low point ahead of the next upswing.”

Those are their forecasts, not ours; Gold Ticker Live does not publish price targets. The record they are talking about is about $5,589, set in January — about a third above Thursday morning’s price.

The floor beneath the rate story

This week’s headlines have been about inflation and the Fed — see Hot CPI, hot yields, cold metals. Central-bank buying is the slower story running underneath: it does not stop gold from falling on a hot CPI, but it is a reason analysts keep pointing to the $4,000 area as a floor. Our guide to what moves the gold price explains how the two forces interact.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.