Gold holds $4,159 into CPI as markets price an 88% chance of a December hike

Gold went into CPI day waiting. Spot gold held steady at $4,159.45 an ounce by 02:51 GMT on Wednesday, according to a Reuters report carried by CNBC, after a softer close on Tuesday. The September consumer price index is due at 12:30 GMT; this article was written before it was released.

Wednesday morning’s prices

As reported by Reuters via CNBC, 02:51 GMT on Wednesday 14 October 2026.

CME’s FedWatch tool put the chance of an October rate hike at about 23% and of a hike by December at about 88%, the report says.

Two Fed voices, two tones

Fed speakers gave the market something to weigh in both directions. New York Fed president John Williams reiterated that one more rate hike may be needed this year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the recent rise in Treasury yields reflects stronger growth, and that inflation expectations remain “well-anchored.” For gold, Waller’s reading is the gentler one: yields rising on growth rather than on inflation fear is less likely to force the Fed’s hand. We look at how Williams’ comments moved bond markets in Williams caps 2027 hikes.

Oil and the Aramco attack

The geopolitical risk sharpened overnight. Saudi Aramco’s administrative building in Dhahran was attacked, Reuters reports, citing Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry, as fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia intensified. In this market, oil risk cuts against gold more than for it: higher energy prices feed inflation and the case for more hikes — the chain we set out in Diesel diplomacy and the IEA.

Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at tastylive, quoted in the report, reads gold’s behaviour as a sign of resilience: with oil rallying, a gold price that holds its range suggests the metal is “trying to find a reason to rally.” Weak readings on CPI, producer prices and retail sales, he adds, could be bullish for gold.

The two CPI paths

Consensus expects headline inflation of 0.6% on the month and 3.6% on the year, with core at 0.2% and 2.5% — see our CPI preview for why the two diverge. A core reading above 0.2% would strengthen the case for a December hike and has tended to push yields and the dollar up and gold down; a reading at or below would ease that pressure. Producer prices and retail sales follow on Thursday. We do not forecast the outcome; the live gold price will show how the market takes it.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.