The CPI trade map: gold needs $4,250, silver needs $61.20

FXEmpire’s pre-CPI analysis has gold near $4,160 and silver near $59 in Asian trading on Wednesday, and lays out the levels that would mark a real break in either direction once the inflation data lands.

The backdrop

The dollar index eased to about 102.16 from an 18-month high, FXEmpire reports, while markets priced about an 88% chance of a December Fed hike. Consensus expects annual inflation to rise to 3.6% from 3.4%. Oil was the wild card: Saudi authorities reported an attack on an Aramco administrative building that caused a limited fire, FXEmpire says, pushing Brent up to $109 on supply risk by its account (Bloomberg had Brent just above $106 in Asian trading), while hopes for more Russian diesel exports pulled the other way — the diesel story we covered in Diesel diplomacy and the IEA.

Gold: a triangle waiting to break

FXEmpire describes gold as sitting on triangle support. Its triggers:

Silver: a wedge between $57.80 and $61.20

Levels as reported by FXEmpire, 14 October 2026. They are FXEmpire’s, not forecasts of ours.

Hot vs soft CPI

The mechanics are the ones we set out in our CPI preview. A hot core reading would tend to lift the dollar index and yields and push both metals toward the lower levels above; a soft one would ease both and give the upper levels a chance. Triangles and wedges are patterns of narrowing ranges; they say a big move is likely, not which way it goes.

Kitco’s and FXStreet’s versions of the same map are in Kitco close and Gold stuck near $4,150.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.